Sentiment remains positive despite small reduction in lot sales
Total sales across metropolitan and regional growth areas declined by more than 4% in July to 1,173 lots. Although activity eased, the broader trend remains positive, reflecting the improved sentiment seen through 2025. This is further evident by gross lot sales being a substantial 58% higher than in the corresponding month last year. The RBA’s surprise decision to hold rates steady in July may have prompted some increased buyer caution, as noted by a slightly more pessimistic reading for the time to buy a dwelling sub-index as a part of the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index, though this is expected to quickly ease following the August rate cut.
Monthly sales decline in metropolitan and Geelong growth corridors
All three Melbourne growth corridors, and Geelong, recorded a monthly drop in sales. The Western corridor retained the highest share at 29%, although down from 32% last month, while Geelong’s proportion fell to 9%. Conversely, both the South East and Northern corridors still saw a marginal increase their respective share of total sales to 23% and 28%, after recording a smaller rate of decline in lot sales. The remaining regional growth areas all experienced a higher market share, however combined, they account for less than 10% of total activity.
Movements in median sizes dictate the change in median prices
In Melbourne, the median lot size grew 2.6% to 359sqm, supporting a 1.4% lift in the median lot price to $397,000. This resulted in the median per sqm rate lowering slightly, although remains above $1,100. In contrast, Geelong's median lot price fell 2.6% to $363,000, driven by a 3.7% drop in lot size to 364sqm. While starting to become less prevalent, rebates and incentives of 5-10% of headline lot prices remain available in the new home market.