First home buyers have not disappeared from the greenfield market. Government incentives, including the 5% deposit scheme, have kept activity elevated. But the profile of who can buy, and what they can afford, has shifted materially.

Buyers are recalibrating. Smaller lots are growing in popularity as households trade size for affordability. Median lot sizes in key corridors such as Moreton Bay (378sqm) and Logan (400sqm) are now sitting at or below 400sqm. First home buyers who are buying are doing so with higher household incomes, greater parental support, or by stretching their budgets.

The market is no longer catering to the median household in the way the greenfield sector has in the past.

“Buyers are still finding a way in. But they’re having to go further out, buy smaller, and stretch harder than any point in recent history. The greenfield sector is adapting to demand, but policy needs to adapt too,” explains Trezise.

The upward pressure from population growth, record low supply, and migration led demand will provide significant resistance to any price correction. Where rate rises have historically softened prices, the current supply demand imbalance in SEQ is operating at a scale that overrides typical cyclical patterns.

That practical response, according to RPM Group, lies in planning. Faster approvals and planning instruments allowing flexibility for smaller lot typologies (the products the market is already moving towards) need to accelerate. This is how the region will meet housing needs and allow more buyers to participate.

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This article draws on findings from RPM Group’s SEQ Greenfield Market Report – April 2026. Access the complete data and market forecasts in the full report.