Greenfield land sales across Melbourne and Geelong recorded a major upswing in May, with 1,112 transactions; this is the highest monthly total since June 2022.

Momentum is building in Victoria’s greenfield market. Sales jumped 28% month-on-month, signalling renewed buyer confidence and stronger developer activity. “May was a standout month,” said Michael Staedler, General Manager of Research, Data & Insights. “We built on April’s strong result, and this time, we had five sales weekends to really see that momentum flow.”

Market confidence grows amid higher lot releases

While May benefited from five full sales weekends, compared to three in April, the overall uplift points to broader shifts in buyer behaviour and market sentiment. Michael also attributed the growth to a 63% increase in new lot releases, with 979 new lots hitting the market across Melbourne and Geelong.

Johnathon Driessen, General Manager of Communities, explained that although we’re not seeing a huge spike in enquiry volumes, “conversion rates are improving. The buyers we’re seeing are more serious. They’re ready to commit, and that’s a strong signal of underlying demand.”

Unsold stock remains a key challenge

Despite the sales rebound, stock overhang continues to build. May saw 283 lots return to market, pushing unsold stock to a new high of 6,259 lots across 249 active estates. “If sales can remain at or above May’s pace, we could start to see that backlog ease,” said Johnathon.

Cancellation rates remain high, and the trend is expected to persist over the next six months, though there may be relief ahead. “The market is currently pricing in a 97% chance of a July rate cut,” Michael said. “If delivered, this – and possibly one or two more later in the year – could help build confidence.”

Price trends and incentives

Despite stronger sales volumes, land prices remain relatively flat, with many incentives still being offered quietly through rebates or bundled deals. “Price movement is happening, but it’s gradual,” Michael explained. “We expect to see more of the same – steady sales, modest adjustment, and cautious optimism.”

Listen to the full May 2025 Monthly Recap here.